2012 Redistribution Draft

     The Thunder Bay Baseball League was founded in November of 2003 and the Initial Player Draft began in January of 2004.  I have been debating blowing things up and starting over (just kidding for anyone who thinks this is real) and decided to see how the draft would shake out if we in deed started over.  Based on last year's final standings, the draft order was set with a snake format for 40 rounds using all players currently in the 2012 databse.  We set all of the GMs to computer and started the draft. 

     The table to the right compares the Top 10 Picks from the Initial Draft 8 years ago to the Simulated Draft held this year. 

2004 Top 10 Picks (actual)
1 SFS Albert Pujols .359-43-124; 1.106 OPS
2 PHS Alex Rodriguez .298-47-118; .995 OPS
3 SMC Vladimir Guerrero .330-25-79; 1.012 OPS
4 SAS Mark Prior 18-6, 2.43 ERA 245 K
5 LTR Todd Helton .358-33-117; 1.088 OPS
6 JER Alfonso Soriano .290-38-91; .863 OPS
7 OCS Tim Hudson 16-7, 2.70 ERA 162 K
8 MOO Javier Vazquez 13-12, 3.24 ERA 241 K
9 PAN Roy Halladay 22-7, 3.25 ERA 204 K
10 GRI Andruw Jones .277-36-116; .851 OPS

2012 Top 10 Picks (computer)
1 JER Jacoby Ellsbury .321-32-105; .928 OPS
2 BOM Justin Verlander 24-5, 2.40 ERA 250 K
3 FLA Matt Kemp .324-39-126; .986 OPS
4 SFS Roy Halladay 19-6, 2.35 ERA 220 K
5 FWK Jose Bautista .302-43-103; 1.056 OPS
6 FLY Clayton Kershaw 21-5, 2.28 ERA 248 K
7 SMM Ryan Braun .332-33-111; .994 OPS
8 PAN Ricky Romero 15-11, 2.92 ERA 178 K
9 MOO Ben Zobrist .269-20-91; .822 OPS
10 COL Troy Tulowitzki .302-30-105; .916 OPS

     What's interesting to note is just one player, Roy Halladay was picked in both drafts in the Top 10.  The Initial draft saw the then 22-7 Halladay go 9th overall to the West Orange franchise while the current 19-6 Halladay went 4th overall this draft.

     If you look at the stats of the players in the Top 10's, it's clear that the offense was much better in 2004.  Three of the Top 10 Batters had an OPS of 1.000 or better in 2004 compared to just one in 2012. 

     The pitching comparison is opposite as expected with just 2 of the Top 10 pitchers in 2004 having a sub 3.00 ERA.  Mark Prior was the to SP selected in 2004 and injuries derailed his career.  Tim Hudson is still going and only fell to a mid second round pick in 2012.  Javier Vazquez was ruined by the AL East and the Halos franchise in the TBBL.

     Below is the complete forty player draft from 2012.  Perhaps the most interesting pick of the draft was the first pick of the final round.  Bryce Harper was selected 937th overall by Lincoln in what could be the biggest steal since Mike Piazza went in the 62nd round of the MLB draft in 1988.

Rd JER (1) BOM (2) FLA (3) SFS (4) FWK (5) FLY (6) SMM (7) PAN (8) MOO (9) COL (10) GOT (11) PHS (12)
1 Jacoby Ellsbury Justin Verlander Matt Kemp Roy Halladay Jose Bautista Clayton Kershaw Ryan Braun Ricky Romero Ben Zobrist Troy Tulowitzki Adrian Gonzalez Jered Weaver
2 Erick Aybar Evan Longoria Albert Pujols Matt Garza Melky Cabrera Justin Upton Tim Hudson Alex Avila Gavin Floyd Cliff Lee C.C. Sabathia Howard Kendrick
3 Nick Swisher Carlos Gonzalez Prince Fielder Alexi Ogando Shaun Marcum Emilio Bonifacio Philip Humber Michael Pineda Yadier Molina Carlos Santana Matt Wieters Chris Carpenter
4 Pablo Sandoval Jay Bruce Jeff Francoeur Colby Lewis Mad. Bumgarner Brett Gardner Mat Latos Corey Hart Jon Lester Josh Hamilton Chris Young Jon Jay
5 Brandon McCarthy Javier Vazquez Michael Cuddyer Matt Harrison Daniel Hudson Mark Buehrle B.J. Upton Dan Uggla Derek Jeter Nick Markakis Jimmy Rollins Brendan Ryan
6 Brandon Beachy Gaby Sanchez Johnny Damon Robert Andino Jason Vargas Ubaldo Jimenez Maicer Izturis Jayson Werth Coco Crisp Daniel Murphy Paul Konerko Aramis Ramirez
7 Brian McCann Sean Rodriguez Chase Headley Kevin Youkilis Randy Wolf Bud Norris Derek Holland Kyle Lohse Brett Myers Jose Valverde Craig Kimbrel Luke Hochevar
8 Neil Walker Sean Marshall Jake Peavy Drew Stubbs Carlos Ruiz Charlie Morton Scott Sizemore Mariano Rivera John Danks Alfredo Aceves Carlos Lee Wilson Ramos
9 Jair Jurrjens Vance Worley Tyler Clippard Casey Kotchman Placido Polanco David Robertson Ted Lilly Clint Barmes Sergio Santos Chipper Jones Kelly Johnson Mark Reynolds
10 Will Venable Alex Gonzalez Darwin Barney Orlando Hudson Dustin Ackley Mark Melancon Drew Storen Ricky Nolasco Zachary Britton Desmond Jennings Tommy Hanson Freddy Garcia
11 Billy Butler Jeff Samardzija Francisco Cordero Carlos Quentin Rafael Betancourt David Freese Mark Trumbo Fausto Carmona Martin Prado Francisco Liriano Andre Ethier Bruce Chen
12 Sergio Romo A.J. Pierzynski Mike Pelfrey Brennan Boesch Brandon League Alexi Casilla Joe Mauer James Loney Nate Schierholtz A.J. Burnett Dillon Gee Jon Papelbon
13 Joaquin Benoit Eric Hosmer Nick Hundley Joe Smith Jason Bartlett Ramon Hernandez Jose Veras Brent Lillibridge Al Alburquerque Roy Oswalt Kameron Loe Jason Heyward
14 Sam LeCure Phil Coke Carlos Zambrano Geovany Soto Jose Tabata Denard Span Glen Perkins Kenley Jansen Javier Lopez Randy Wells Jerry Hairston Brad Ziegler
15 Dustin Moseley Michael Brantley Santiago Casilla Kyle Farnsworth Henry Rodriguez Matt Thornton Todd Coffey Antonio Bastardo Edward Mujica Chad Qualls Felipe Paulino Darren Oliver
16 Carlos Marmol Jeff Francis Tim Wakefield Louis Coleman Mike Carp Jesse Crain Endy Chavez Ty Wigginton Shelley Duncan Juan Nicasio Wade Davis Juan Pierre
17 James McDonald Ramon Santiago Mike Aviles Grant Balfour Yosh. Tateyama Joel Peralta Aaron Crow Blake Wood Jorge de la Rosa Rafael Perez Anthony Swarzak Clay Buchholz
18 Jason Marquis Cody Ross Jonathon Niese Tony Sipp Hisanori Takahashi Carlos Gomez Tony Gwynn Eric Thames Logan Ondrusek Aaron Hill Daniel Descalso Bobby Cassevah
19 Burke Badenhop Blake Beavan Jason Isringhausen Josh Reddick Jason Grilli Cory Wade Cliff Pennington Chris Perez Juan Rivera Vladimir Guerrero David Pauley Matt Belisle
20 Hideki Matsui Pedro Beato Tommy Hunter Josh Lindblom Chris Getz Chris Parmelee Buster Posey Dan Wheeler Willie Harris Alfonso Soriano Ross Detwiler Adam Lind
21 Miguel Cairo Brian Wilson Chien-Ming Wang David Ross Nate McLouth Rafael Furcal Javy Guerra Henry Blanco J.D. Martinez Rick Ankiel Will Ohman Willie Bloomquist
22 Andy Dirks Brett Anderson J. Saltalamacchia Blake DeWitt Jason Giambi Matt Treanor Freddy Sanchez Jonny Gomes Craig Gentry Luke Gregerson A.J. Ellis Marlon Byrd
23 Jesus Montero Ichiro Suzuki Brandon Belt Kyle Seager Ronny Paulino Kelly Shoppach Troy Patton Jed Lowrie Scott Elbert Nick Evans Eric Young Ryan Sweeney
24 Aubrey Huff Frank Herrmann Michael Dunn Mitch Maier Edgar Renteria Tyson Ross Elliot Johnson Ian Desmond Eduardo Sanchez Jose Arredondo Mike MacDougal Christopher Leroux
25 Joey Devine Jake Fox Alfredo Simon John McDonald Ryan Ludwick Matt LaPorta Josh Thole Franklin Gutierrez Takashi Saito Kevin Millwood Blake Hawksworth Tim Dillard
26 Dontrelle Willis Adam Kennedy Ryan Mattheus Taylor Buchholz Shawn Kelley Scott Rolen Joba Chamberlain Randall Delgado Justin Sellers Joel Carreno Milton Bradley Brayan Pena
27 Gerald Laird Rubby De La Rosa Julio Borbon Tony Watson Dylan Axelrod Andrew Cashner Greg Dobbs Randy Choate Ramon Castro Lance Lynn Chris Gimenez Zack Cozart
28 John Grabow Clayton Mortensen Justin Ruggiano Nathan Eovaldi Josh Roenicke Jose Altuve Aaron Rowand Jon aaaMeloan Garrett Jones Jack Wilson Arodys Vizcaino Chris Young
29 Esmerling Vasquez Scott Diamond Everett Teaford Luis Mendoza Eulogio De La Cruz Jose Ceda Duane Below Dane Sardinha Clay Rapada Orlando Cabrera Bryan LaHair Jared Hughes
30 Jonathan Herrera Micah Owings Tom Milone Eli Whiteside Luke Scott Lyle Overbay Scott Atchison Dale Thayer Drew Sutton Jimmy Paredes Darnell McDonald Luke Hughes
31 Chris Ray James Russell Chris Schwinden Mark Hamburger Alex Liddi Grady Sizemore Ryan Langerhans F. De Los Santos Jordan Pacheco Lester Oliveros Jim Miller Hum Quintero
32 Chris Nelson Drew Pomeranz Josh Lueke Alex Rios Michael McKenry Mike Cameron Rene Tosoni Johnny Giavotella Chris Davis Brandon Kintzler Dayan Viciedo Mark DeRosa
33 Greg Halman Juan Gutierrez Joakim Soria Hector Santiago Ryan Perry A.Cunningham Alexander Torres Sean Green David Carpenter Juan Cruz Kevin Kouzmanoff Brad Hawpe
34 Garrett Olson Zach Duke Matt Palmer Juan Perez Juan Francisco Jeff Baker Raul Ibanez Hector Noesi J.C. Romero Justin De Fratus Lucas Harrell Jason Bulger
35 Michael O'Connor Eric Fryer Michael Kirkman George Kontos J.B. Shuck Eric Patterson Jose Mijares Jake McGee Jon Rauch Scott Linebrink Charlie Blackmon Brandon Allen
36 Anthony Slama Chris Coghlan Greg Reynolds Andrew Brackman Addison Reed Danys Baez J.D. Drew Fer.Rodriguez Brett Wallace Chad Beck Manny Acosta Wily Mo Pena
37 Travis Buck Carlos Guillen Adam Everett David Purcey Xavier Nady Jason Repko Travis Snider Trevor Crowe Jorge Posada Matt aaaAdams Chance Ruffin Danny Worth
38 Jason aaaCastro N. aaaCastellanos Erik Kratz Byron aaaBuxton Jeremy Hermida Joe Benson Matt Diaz Gary aaaBrown Anthony Rizzo Bryce aaaBrentz Jackie aaaBradley B. aaaBorchering
39 Garin aaaCecchini Y. aaaCespedes Charlie Furbush M.aaaChoice Christian aaaColon Ezequiel Carrera Jay Gibbons Zach aaaCox Russ Mitchell C. aaaCuthbert David aaaDahl Travis aaaDArnaud
40 Derek aaaNorris Will aaaMyers Jeff Fulchino K. aaaMorales aaaMiddlebrooks Matt Angle Fred Lewis Starling aaaMarte Matt Dominguez Jake aaaMarisnick D aaaMarerro Mikie aaaMahtook
Rd HOU (13) SMC (14) SAS (15) GRI (16) PAD (17) BEA (18) KEN (19) LAH (20) OCS (21) VOL (22) NEW (23) LTR (24)
1 Dustin Pedroia Dan Haren Shane Victorino Curtis Granderson Ian Kinsler Jose Reyes Robinson Cano Mike Napoli Doug Fister Alex Gordon James Shields Miguel Cabrera
2 A. McCutchen Justin Masterson Ian Kennedy Brandon Phillips Felix Hernandez Josh Beckett J.J. Hardy C.J. Wilson Hunter Pence Joey Votto Matt Cain Cole Hamels
3 Adrian Beltre Lance Berkman Tim Lincecum Gio Gonzalez Jeremy Hellickson Cameron Maybin Michael Bourn David Ortiz David Price Yunel Escobar Elvis Andrus Matt Holliday
4 Mike Stanton Peter Bourjos Yovani Gallardo Alexei Ramirez Jhoulys Chacin Michael Young Mike Morse Carlos Beltran Jhonny Peralta Ervin Santana Johnny Cueto Asdrubal Cabrera
5 R.A. Dickey Victor Martinez Brandon Morrow Miguel Montero Adam Jones Danny Espinosa Jor. Zimmermann Austin Jackson Josh Collmenter Ryan Roberts Ryan Vogelsong Torii Hunter
6 Matthew Joyce Gerardo Parra Zack Greinke Alberto Callaspo Anibal Sanchez Jonny Venters Mark Teixeira Omar Infante Chase Utley Scott Baker Ivan Nova G. Moscoso
7 Starlin Castro Cory Luebke Allen Craig John Mayberry Bartolo Colon Hiroki Kuroda Alex Rodriguez Josh Willingham Dexter Fowler Rickie Weeks Angel Pagan Nyjer Morgan
8 Jaime Garcia Jeff Karstens Mike Adams Todd Helton Marco Scutaro Rick Porcello Paul Maholm Jamey Carroll Jeremy Guthrie Josh Tomlin Daniel Bard Trevor Cahill
9 Max Scherzer Carl Pavano David Wright Erik Bedard Joel Hanrahan Carlos Villanueva Russell Martin Mike Leake Edwin Jackson Chris Iannetta John Axford Wandy Rodriguez
10 Freddie Freeman Ruben Tejada Alcides Escobar Eric O'Flaherty Jesus Guzman Chris Narveson Chad Billingsley Jason Hammel Vinnie Pestano Fernando Salas Matt Downs Jemile Weeks
11 Logan Morrison Justin Turner Bobby Abreu Nelson Cruz Carlos Pena Jason Motte Tim Stauffer Ryan Zimmerman Heath Bell Andres Torres Jack Hannahan Edwin Encarnacion
12 Kurt Suzuki Koji Uehara Mark Ellis Derek Lowe Josh Johnson Cristhian Martinez Octavio Dotel Chris Sale Reed Johnson Jim Johnson Greg Holland F J Rodriguez
13 Ryan Madson Stephen Drew Jeremy Affeldt Ryan Howard Alejandro de Aza Lucas Duda David DeJesus Homer Bailey Ryan Raburn Livan Hernandez Jason Bay Steve Cishek
14 Carlos Carrasco Brett Lawrie Neftali Feliz Jeff Niemann David Hernandez Seth Smith Leo Nunez Scott Downs Ramon S. Ramirez Chris Denorfia Nolan Reimold Ryan Dempster
15 Joe Saunders J.J. Putz Jonathan Lucroy Aroldis Chapman Ben Revere Jordan Walden Jason Bourgeois Marc Rzepczynski Ryan Doumit Jim Thome Ryan Theriot Matt Guerrier
16 Marco Estrada Jason Kubel Casey Janssen John Lannan Wilton Lopez Jake Arrieta Kyle Kendrick Frank Francisco Rod Barajas Sam Fuld Matt Lindstrom Jesse Litsch
17 Nick Punto Brett Cecil Ernesto Frieri Alex Presley Ryan Hanigan Shin-Soo Choo Derrek Lee Kyle McClellan Andruw Jones Eduardo Nunez John Buck Casper Wells
18 Matt Albers Guillermo Mota Rich Thompson Mike Fontenot Wilson Betemit Salvador Perez Michael Stutes Kevin Correia Bill Bray Chris Volstad Andrew Bailey Rafael Soriano
19 Matt Capps Hanley Ramirez Ike Davis Daniel McCutchen Bobby Parnell Corey Patterson Jake Westbrook David Herndon LaTroy Hawkins Miguel Batista Bryan Petersen J.P. Arencibia
20 Stephen Strasburg Sean Burnett Jason Donald Kevin Gregg Dee Gordon Brian Sanches Ryan Webb Jerry Sands Trevor Plouffe Henderson Alvarez Brian Fuentes Danny Valencia
21 Daniel Schlereth Cesar Ramos Wilson Valdez Tom Gorzelanny Casey Blake Miguel Olivo Aaron Harang Jose Molina Alex Cobb Travis Hafner Kosuke Fukudome Aaron Miles
22 Ben Francisco Chris Heisey Skip Schumaker Nick Masset Tim Collins Vernon Wells Chris Snyder Scott Hairston Justin Smoak Phil Hughes Jason Kipnis Rex Brothers
23 Jose Constanza Conor Jackson George Kottaras David Murphy Yorvit Torrealba Yonder Alonso Kerry Wood Jason Pridie Lonnie Chisenhall Jason Frasor Lou Marson Colby Rasmus
24 Brett Hayes Francisco Cervelli Josh Spence Tyler Greene Roger Bernadina Mike Gonzalez Pat Burrell Josh Harrison Luis Ayala Jason Varitek D.Matsuzaka Paul Goldschmidt
25 Shawn Camp Brooks Conrad Kyle Blanks Aneury Rodriguez Pedro Strop Edgmer Escalona Joe Paterson David Huff Carl Crawford Brandon Gomes Brad Lincoln Delmon Young
26 Mike Trout Nick Hagadone Tony Cruz Anthony Bass Todd Frazier Jeff Keppinger Anthony Varvaro Mike McCoy Ronny Cedeno Laynce Nix Mike Moustakas Huston Street
27 Tim Byrdak Mark Kotsay Craig Stammen Brian Roberts Willie Eyre Brett Pill Tyler Flowers Mark Lowe Brad Peacock Phil Dumatrait Brandon Inge Boone Logan
28 Dana Eveland Rajai Davis Jordan Schafer Joe Nathan Cory Gearrin Cole Kimball Andy LaRoche Sergio Escalona Juan Miranda Jonathan Sanchez John Jaso Tom Wilhelmsen
29 Josh Outman Rich Hill Domonic Brown Dan Runzler Rob Johnson Mitch Moreland George Sherrill Fernando Rodney Jason Jaramillo Franklin Morales Brett Tomko Dustin McGowan
30 Nathan Adcock Jayson Nix Wesley Wright Julio Teheran Brent Morel Daric Barton Zach Phillips Angel Sanchez Vicente Padilla Clay Hensley Brian Broderick Ramon Ortiz
31 Brad Bergesen Luis Martinez Jeremy Jeffress Sergio Mitre Austin Kearns Y. Betancourt Brandon Crawford Ryan Lavarnway Trent Oeltjen Brian Duensing Gordon Beckham Michael Bowden
32 Bryan Shaw Cesar Jimenez Magglio Ordonez Hector Sanchez Ryan Adams Ivan Rodriguez Brian Bogusevic Joe Thatcher Tony Campana Eric Stults Scott Feldman Bobby Cramer
33 Jon Garland Kyle Waldrop Enerio Del Rosario Wilin Rosario Jamey Wright Chris Resop Don Kelly Jack Cust Carlos Fisher Luis Rodriguez Mitchell Boggs Pedro Ciriaco
34 Doug Davis J.P. Howell Jerry Blevins Justin Morneau Eric Chavez Alex Burnett Geoff Blum James Darnell Dave Sappelt Martin Maldonado Mike McClendon Chris Stewart
35 Jose Contreras Adam Wilk Chris Dickerson Dallas Braden Matt Reynolds Brad Lidge Mike Baxter Michael Schwimer Hideki Okajima Luis Perez Daniel Moskos Blake Davis
36 Marcos Mateo Jeff Gray Justin Christian Jarrod Dyson Eric Hinske Trevor Bell Brian Dinkelman Chuck James Peter Moylan Jarrod Parker Matt Moore Craig Tatum
37 Andres Blanco Chris Johnson Evan Scribner Jeanmar Gomez Collin Cowgill Michael Taylor Will Rhymes Yoan aaaAlcantara Marcus Thames Kyle Drabek Norichika aaaAoki Nolan aaaArenado
38 Steve Clevenger Pedro Alvarez X. aaaBogaerts Wade LeBlanc Gregor aaaBlanco Mason Tobin D. aaaBichette Jr C. aaaBethanco Justin Berg Josh aaaBell Tim aaaBeckham Javier aaaBaez
39 Matt aaaDavidson Sean Burroughs Jeff aaaDecker Dave Bush Nick aaaFranklin Brian aaaGoodwin Anthony aaaGose Y. aaaGrandal Grant aaaGreen R. aaaGrossman Jedd aaaGyorko Billy aaaHamilton
40 M. aaaMachado Donnie Murphy Rymer aaaLiriano Jerome Williams F. aaaLindor Hak Ju aaaLee Ryan aaaKalish Brett aaaJackson Hisashi aaaIwaku Aaron aaaHicks Rosell aaaHerrera Bryce aaaHarper

     Now onto the fun stuff!  Using the new rosters I ran a sim and the best new team in the TBBL was the Houston Oil Barons!  Houston was the only team to win 100 games and won the division by 16 games.  The worst team, was of course the Jersey Damage showing that no matter who picked for me we stunk.  Go figure!